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The Tentacle


February 2, 2012

A Seemingly Repetitious Cycle

Chris Cavey

This morning, 90 miles to the northeast of Pittsburgh, a crowd of 30,000 will gather on Gobbler's Knob and await the annual prediction of the world's most famous groundhog, Punxsutawney Phil. The immortal Phil will peer from his stump in search of his shadow.

 

A cloudy day and Spring will be on its way. Too bad the political arena can't be this predictable...or maybe it really is the same.

 

Three weeks ago crowds gathered in the Granite State, trudged to the polls in the cold and gave Mitt Romney a win. It was predictable and expected. Two weeks ago crowds gathered in the beautiful Palmetto State and unexpectedly overturned Romney's New Hampshire momentum giving Newt Gingrich a win.

 

In the Sunshine State the tide had again turned. Former Massachusetts Gov. Romney was the winner once again with huge momentum on his side. The predictions of the press and pundits seem to change just like the weather in western Pennsylvania and are about as reliable as the famous rodent from Punxsutawney. (A 39% accuracy over 121 years!) They only know what they see on a certain day... they are myopic.

 

My prediction is Governor Romney wins the GOP nomination before any of us cast a vote in Maryland.

 

Governor Romney has an extremely deep organization – 50 states deep with professionals and experienced statewide organizers on each state campaign. He has a national team working weeks ahead – planning, preparing, working phones and early vote centers. You will find Governor Romney has finance committees in every state, too. Money is communication.

 

The other candidates, to date, lack the organization, depth and finances. It’s tough to win when you can't raise the money, banking solely on single benefactor, and failing to even qualify for the ballot in some states. Not impossible... just tough. I think it is the difference between someone who had made millions in business and someone who has been a longtime Washington insider... different thought patterns.

 

In the movie Ground Hog Day (Columbia Pictures 1993) Bill Murray's character, Phil Connors, relives the same day over and over, starting the same morning each time with the song "I've got you, Babe." He is stuck in a time loop and doesn't leave there until he changes his life, which includes his reporting of the event which is in front of him – Punxsutawney Phil's emergence from his stump.

 

This morning 90 miles to the northeast of Pittsburgh a crowd of 30,000 will gather on Gobbler's Knob and await the annual prediction of the world's most famous groundhog, Punxsutawney Phil. The immortal Phil will peer from his stump in search of his shadow.

 

A cloudy day and spring will be on its way. Too bad the political arena can't be this predictable...or maybe it really is the same.

 

Three weeks ago crowds gathered in the Granite State, trudged to the polls in the cold and gave Mitt Romney a win. It was predictable and expected. Two weeks ago crowds gathered in the beautiful Palmetto State and unexpectedly overturned Romney's New Hampshire momentum giving Newt Gingrich a win.

 

In the Sunshine State the tide had again turned. Former Massachusetts Gov. Romney was the winner once again with huge momentum on his side. The predictions of the press and pundits seem to change just like the weather in western Pennsylvania and are about as reliable as the famous rodent from Punxsutawney. (A 39% accuracy over 121 years!) They only know what they see on a certain day... they are myopic.

 

My prediction is Governor Romney wins the GOP nomination before any of us cast a vote in Maryland.

 

Governor Romney has an extremely deep organization – 50 states deep with professionals and experienced statewide organizers on each state campaign. He has a national team working weeks ahead – planning, preparing, working phones and early vote centers. You will find Governor Romney has finance committees in every state, too. Money is communication.

 

The other candidates, to date, lack the organization, depth and finances. It’s tough to win when you can't raise the money, banking solely on single benefactor, and failing to even qualify for the ballot in some states. Not impossible... just tough. I think it is the difference between someone who had made millions in business and someone who has been a longtime Washington insider... different thought patterns.

 

In the movie Ground Hog Day (Columbia Pictures 1993) Bill Murray's character, Phil Connors, relives the same day over and over, starting the same morning each time with the song "I've got you babe." He is stuck in a time loop and doesn't leave there until he changes his life, which includes his reporting of the event which is in front of him – Punxsutawney Phil's emergence from his stump.

 

This morning 90 miles to the northeast of Pittsburgh a crowd of 30,000 will gather on Gobbler's Knob and await the annual prediction of the world's most famous groundhog, Punxsutawney Phil. The immortal Phil will peer from his stump in search of his shadow.

 

A cloudy day and spring will be on its way. Too bad the political arena can't be this predictable...or maybe it really is the same.

 

Three weeks ago crowds gathered in the Granite State, trudged to the polls in the cold and gave Mitt Romney a win. It was predictable and expected. Two weeks ago crowds gathered in the beautiful Palmetto State and unexpectedly overturned Romney's New Hampshire momentum giving Newt Gingrich a win.

 

In the Sunshine State the tide had again turned. Former Massachusetts Gov. Romney was the winner once again with huge momentum on his side. The predictions of the press and pundits seem to change just like the weather in western Pennsylvania and are about as reliable as the famous rodent from Punxsutawney. (A 39% accuracy over 121 years!) They only know what they see on a certain day... they are myopic.

 

My prediction is Governor Romney wins the GOP nomination before any of us cast a vote in Maryland.

 

Governor Romney has an extremely deep organization – 50 states deep with professionals and experienced statewide organizers on each state campaign. He has a national team working weeks ahead – planning, preparing, working phones and early vote centers. You will find Governor Romney has finance committees in every state, too. Money is communication.

 

The other candidates, to date, lack the organization, depth and finances. It’s tough to win when you can't raise the money, banking solely on single benefactor, and failing to even qualify for the ballot in some states. Not impossible... just tough. I think it is the difference between someone who had made millions in business and someone who has been a longtime Washington insider... different thought patterns.

 

In the movie Ground Hog Day (Columbia Pictures 1993) Bill Murray's character, Phil Connors, relives the same day over and over, starting the same morning each time with the song "I've got you babe." He is stuck in a time loop and doesn't leave there until he changes his life, which includes his reporting of the event which is in front of him – Punxsutawney Phil's emergence from his stump.

 

By the Way – Happy Ground Hog Day...many times over!

 

chris@cavey.com

 



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